Langfristiges Investieren lohnt sich, so erneut der sehr renommierten lichtensteinischen Portfolio Manager Incrementum (Englisch).
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen
The other day I read: «the transition from enlightenment to radiation is probably fluid».
What to expect in 2022
Most of the time, most forecasters are exceptionally wrong! This is why I do not want to forecast what may happen in 2022. I just hate to be mistaken with all my readers noticing. But, maybe we can draw some conclusions from last year.
In 2021 some technology and commodity companies delivered dizzying returns. But, to everyone's disappointment, precious metals have performed poorly, despite inflation rates rising to multi-decade highs in most G20 nations.
Our conservative cash flow-focused, low-tech and value-based strategy for private client mandates again delivered a solid performance but lagged far behind highrent tech and commodity stocks. In the long-term, i.e. ten-year, the performance of our portfolios is nevertheless around 7% net per year. These returns, however, are not evenly distributed because even with our cash flow approach, we cannot wholly escape the volatility of the market.
So what can we expect from the current year? I don't know! However, I still recommend a very long-term and considered approach and personally try to implement this through our cash flow strategy. Because, in my opinion, investing is about sowing seeds cultivating them and skimming the profits that come from them. I get the impression of often exaggerated, unreal expectations, and I firmly believe "instant gratification" does not lead to sustainable returns, neither in portfolios, companies, or interpersonal relationships.
Where is the risk no one expects?
Covid, inflation and supply chain bottlenecks are omnipresent. And yet, Ladies and Gentlemen, risks that everyone expects usually do not hold any surprise potential. Therefore, I do not expect those issues to impact financial markets in 2022 negatively. I expect inflation rates to decline after world trade recovers from the negative impact of the covid crisis, which I believe will happen this year. I also do not expect stagflation; productivity rates in the G20 are far too appealing for that. The risks I see stem from an escalation of the current geopolitical situation, a further tendency to divide our society into several levels and a worsening of the energy crisis in (mainly) western industrialised countries.
To me, a strategy geared to positive cash flows offers the advantage that in the event of price setbacks, positive cash flows generated can be reinvested and thus purchases can be made selectively at lower prices.
I am not too negative for 2021 but setbacks can never be excluded, they are part of the game or as Kevin Muir (Macro Tourist) put it the other day; «When markets are allowed to take things too far, they often do. It's almost a feature rather than a bug.» A crash may represent a great opportunity!
Think about it!
Quelle: Incrementum AG