Ronald Stöferle, der sehr erfahrene Fund Manager und Aktienanalyst bei incrementum, schreibt über ungewisse Zeiten beim Investieren (Englisch).
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen
Thank you very much again for all your feedback!
Today I would like to point out some thoughts on the relativity of value.
...but first just some more on Inflation
Ladies and Gentlemen, I do not feel entirely comfortable in an environment of exploding central bank balance sheets and government budget deficits. We see helicopter money, small amounts for the time being, but eventually, why not rain down millions per person, as one of my readers pointed out? You know, if eventually money has no value anymore and is a simple lubricant for the economy and cannot be used as a store of value no longer, any outcome seems possible.
But enough for inflation so far. Maybe you want to have a look at the timber price chart. Timber is significant for the U.S. housing industry, and this chart looks rather «topish». Now, I know everyone is forecasting higher inflation right now, but I believe, if salaries are not following price increases on a recurring basis, higher inflation or even hyperinflation will not occur. We will certainly come back to this in a few months from now.
We truly live in unprecedented times. Ladies and Gentlemen, I genuinely do not like using the term «unprecedented times». Too many analysts and journalists have overused this term in too many publications. However, the term is accurate after all, and yet, looking back at the last 120 years, was this not always the case from time to time (at least more or less)? Ask people who have lived through WWII, experienced the Vietnam war, the fall of the iron curtain, the Berlin wall, etc.
Migration in Asset Management?
I read an intriguing article the other day, and I did mention my view to Mark, one of my readers, about it. The article somewhat created a blurred vision in my head that maybe we live at the brink of a time of an ongoing migration from what I would call a period of classic asset management (connected to a classic value approach) to a form of asset management of exponential growth, exponential opportunity and exponential loss potential. I cannot think much of some of those «assets» out there, yet they still show phenomenal price increases. Maybe my "value- and positive cashflow-based" investment approach not only is old school but outdated. We will only know in the future what approach still holds in a few years from now. If investors are willing to pay the price for what I would call an asset without any intrinsic value, it clearly shows that value is relative according to and depending on an investor's point of view.
Nevertheless, I just feel uncomfortable looking at «assets» with now intrinsic value exploding in price also because members of specific social media platforms push them to unexpected levels. To me, this has almost a Ponzi schemes character. Again, I am old school in many ways, so do not take my perspective too seriously.
Quelle: Incrementum AG